When Independence Means Whatever He Says
There are three certainties in life: death, taxes, and Donald Trump trying to fire someone he doesn’t like. Now he’s aiming at the Federal Reserve, the supposedly independent temple of monetary policy that has somehow become just another episode of his reality show.
Markets expect a 25-basis-point cut at the next policy meeting. A normal person might treat that as a technical adjustment. Trump treats it as an audition. He’s racing to seat Stephen Miran—currently chair of the Council of Economic Advisers—as a Fed governor in time to cast a vote. Miran insists he’ll take unpaid leave rather than resign, because nothing says “independent policymaker” like still cashing White House Christmas cards.
At the same time, Trump is trying to fire Governor Lisa Cook, appointed by Biden, over unproven mortgage-fraud allegations from 2021. A district judge blocked the move, but the D.C. Circuit may revisit it soon. Think about that: a sitting president trying to yank a Fed governor mid-term, not because of policy but because of politics. It’s like a toddler reaching across the Monopoly board to snatch your hotel because “the game isn’t fair.”
Numbers Don’t Lie, but Politicians Do
The backdrop isn’t reassuring. Inflation came in at 2.9% year-over-year, up 0.4% month-over-month. Unemployment is 4.3%. Only 22,000 jobs were added. Those are mixed signals—half progress, half warning flare.
But instead of debating them honestly, Trump insists the Fed must follow his lead. Forget dual mandates, employment stability, or inflation targets. The new mandate is vibes: whatever makes him look good.
Markets, ever the suckers for a strongman narrative, are bracing themselves. The idea that the White House might directly reshape the Fed mid-meeting has traders checking their Bloomberg terminals the way normal people check smoke alarms.
A Rare Dissent Becomes a Precedent
July’s meeting saw something rare: two Fed governors, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, dissenting in favor of a cut. That dissent was the crack Trump needed. Now he’s stuffing his man Miran into the room, hoping to tip the scales.
The irony? Trump’s own party spent decades lecturing about the sanctity of Fed independence. Sound money, Austrian economics, gold bugs—all those fever dreams about keeping politics out of the printing press. Now? Independence is canceled. Loyalty is in.
Lisa Cook as the Scapegoat
Enter Lisa Cook, one of the Fed’s most qualified governors, whose actual record includes years of scholarship on economic resilience and innovation. To Trump, she’s just an obstacle. So out come the allegations—dusty, unproven, tossed out by a district judge, but convenient enough to try again in appeals.
This is the Trumpian formula: find a pretext, smear it with partisan ink, and call it accountability. It’s not governance—it’s a coup in paperwork.
Cook’s removal wouldn’t just shift one seat. It would send the message that no Fed governor is safe. Independence wouldn’t just be compromised. It would be gone.
The Theater of the Absurd
Imagine the FOMC table: nineteen members, charts and graphs everywhere, economic models stacked to the ceiling. And then Trump barges in through the back door like a guy who wandered into the wrong HOA meeting. “Cut the rates. Fire Cook. Seat Miran. Why? Because I said so.”
Long-term yields will spike. Markets will panic. Independence will die. And Trump will call it “the best Fed ever.”
A Fed Meeting or a WWE Pay-Per-View?
This isn’t a policy meeting anymore. It’s a political stress test. Will Powell stand firm? Will Miran get sworn in mid-debate? Will Cook survive the legal onslaught? Will the dissenters double down?
It’s less monetary policy, more cage match. Somewhere in the background, markets scream, “We just want predictability!” while Trump throws folding chairs across the ring.
The Numbers Nobody Wants to Hear
Inflation at 2.9% isn’t a crisis, but it isn’t a victory lap either. Month-over-month growth at 0.4% hints at stickiness. Unemployment at 4.3% shows labor isn’t invincible. Only 22,000 jobs added is anemic.
These are complicated numbers requiring serious debate. But nuance doesn’t trend. Trump needs spectacle. So instead of boring analysis, we get a soap opera about who gets to vote, who gets to stay, and whether the White House can bend the Fed like a paperclip.
The Long-Term Damage
This isn’t just about one cut or one meeting. It’s about precedent. If Trump succeeds in forcing out Cook and seating Miran mid-meeting, Fed independence becomes myth. Every future president, Democrat or Republican, will treat the Fed as a cabinet extension.
Long-term yields will price in political interference. Foreign investors will start treating U.S. bonds less like safe assets and more like gambling slips. Markets run on trust. Break that, and you pay for decades.
Trump’s America: Independence for Me, Not for Thee
This is the hypocrisy. Trump rails against “weaponized” institutions. He accuses everyone else of politicization. Then he does exactly that, only louder. Independence isn’t the principle—it’s the excuse.
And the crowd cheers. Fed governance has been reduced to a culture war issue: are you with Trump’s vision of loyalty, or against it? Forget the data. Forget inflation. Forget jobs. It’s about tribal allegiance.
Miran the Loyalist
Stephen Miran is not a villain. He’s competent enough. But his willingness to sit as both CEA chair and Fed governor—even if technically on leave—reeks of conflict. Imagine refereeing a game while wearing the jersey of one team.
It’s not independence. It’s choreography. And once the choreography is clear, the credibility is gone.
The Ghost of Volcker Weeps
Somewhere, Paul Volcker is rolling in his grave. The man who once jacked rates to 20% to crush inflation, enduring the ire of presidents and voters alike, would see this spectacle for what it is: a hollowing out of integrity.
Independence isn’t glamorous. It’s supposed to be boring. Now it’s a circus. And the clowns are in charge.
The Stakes, Plain and Simple
What happens if the Fed cuts by 25 basis points under Trump’s thumb? Maybe short-term relief. Maybe markets breathe for a week. But the long-term consequence is clear: every decision will be suspect. Every policy will be politicized. The Fed will no longer be trusted as neutral.
That’s not a cut. That’s a fracture.
Summary: Fed Independence on the Chopping Block
The upcoming Fed meeting isn’t just about a 25-basis-point cut. It’s a test of whether independence survives at all. Trump’s push to seat Stephen Miran mid-meeting and fire Lisa Cook over unproven allegations, combined with recent dissents and shaky economic indicators, has turned monetary policy into a political circus. Inflation at 2.9%, unemployment at 4.3%, and an anemic 22,000 jobs added all demand careful analysis. Instead, the White House is turning the 19-member FOMC into a loyalty test. If political interference wins, long-term yields will spike, markets will lose trust, and Fed independence will be remembered as a quaint relic of a bygone era.