Every year, the Emmys give us an opportunity to reflect not just on the television that entertained us, but the television that defined the cultural conversation. Some shows break through because they’re technically brilliant. Others linger because they captured a mood or gave us characters we couldn’t stop talking about. This year, the ballots feel especially stacked. It’s an Apple vs. HBO slugfest in drama, a comedy sweep waiting to happen, and a limited series that has already captured the zeitgeist.
Below are my predictions across the major categories—not just who I think will win, but who I think should win, and why.
Outstanding Drama Series
- Severance (Apple TV+)
- The Pitt (HBO)
- Succession
- The Gilded Age
- Slow Horses
- The Morning Show
- House of the Dragon
- The Diplomat
Prediction: Severance
For me, this is the clear front-runner. Its 27 nominations show just how much industry support it has, but beyond the numbers, it feels like the most daring piece of drama this year. It’s visually sharp, psychologically unsettling, and emotionally layered. While The Pitt surged late with its grand storytelling and comfort-food qualities, Severance captures something much deeper: the claustrophobic, fractured way so many of us feel about work and identity. That universality is why I think it takes the crown.
Outstanding Comedy Series
- The Studio
- Abbott Elementary
- Hacks
- Only Murders in the Building
- The Bear
- Reservation Dogs
- Ted Lasso
- Curb Your Enthusiasm
Prediction: The Studio
Comedy this year has been strong across the board, but The Studio feels like the defining entry. It’s not just funny—it’s sharp about the mechanics of entertainment itself. The writing is tight, the performances layered, and it strikes that rare Emmy sweet spot: both highbrow and accessible. I love Abbott Elementary and think Reservation Dogs deserves so much more attention than it’s received, but The Studio has momentum. It’s already swept Creative Arts, and I think it’s poised to sweep here too.
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Adolescence
- All the Light We Cannot See
- Fargo
- True Detective: Night Country
- Ripley
Prediction: Adolescence
This is the one category that doesn’t feel competitive. Adolescence is a lightning rod—a show that didn’t just get watched but dissected, argued about, and obsessed over. It’s a rare limited series that became a cultural event, and Emmy voters tend to reward exactly that kind of impact. The performances, the writing, the cultural conversation—it checks every box.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
- Noah Wyle (The Pitt)
- Jeremy Strong (Succession)
- Adam Scott (Severance)
- Brian Cox (Succession)
- Gary Oldman (Slow Horses)
- Pedro Pascal (The Last of Us)
Prediction: Noah Wyle
I think this is Wyle’s year. He’s been around television long enough to earn the “career” narrative, and his work in The Pitt has been widely praised as the best of his career. Strong and Scott both turned in outstanding work, but Wyle combines performance, timing, and the story voters love: a veteran finally getting his due.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
- Kathy Bates (Matlock)
- Sarah Snook (Succession)
- Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show)
- Imelda Staunton (The Crown)
- Jodie Comer (Killing Eve)
- Keri Russell (The Diplomat)
Prediction: Kathy Bates
This could go a few ways, but I think Bates makes history here. Reviving Matlock as prestige drama seemed like a gamble, but her performance is so commanding that it completely reframes the role. Sarah Snook is extraordinary and arguably deserves a win for the last season of Succession, but Bates has the momentum and the narrative that Emmy voters can’t resist.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
- Seth Rogen (The Studio)
- Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)
- Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso)
- Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building)
- Bill Hader (Barry)
- Donald Glover (Atlanta)
Prediction: Seth Rogen
This feels like one of the night’s safer bets. Rogen has reinvented himself with The Studio, giving a performance that’s both grounded and funny without leaning on his usual persona. Jeremy Allen White is always incredible, but his work in The Bear often feels more dramatic than comedic. Rogen, meanwhile, nails the comedy while still showing real range, which is exactly what Emmy voters reward.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
- Jean Smart (Hacks)
- Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary)
- Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building)
- Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
- Ayo Edebiri (The Bear)
- Issa Rae (Insecure)
Prediction: Jean Smart
I don’t think anyone can touch Jean Smart in this category. She continues to deliver some of the best comedic performances on television, and Emmy voters know it. Quinta Brunson is brilliant, Ayo Edebiri is a breakout star, but Smart’s work is in a class of its own. She should—and will—win again.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series
- Colin Farrell (Adolescence)
- Andrew Scott (Ripley)
- Ewan McGregor (A Gentleman in Moscow)
- Jon Hamm (Fargo)
- Taron Egerton (Black Bird)
- Mark Ruffalo (All the Light We Cannot See)
Prediction: Colin Farrell
Farrell has been delivering outstanding film performances for years, but Adolescence gave him a television vehicle that showcased everything he can do: vulnerability, menace, charisma. It’s the kind of performance that dominates a category, and given the show’s momentum, this feels inevitable.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series
- Michelle Williams (Adolescence)
- Jessica Chastain (George & Tammy Redux)
- Elisabeth Moss (Shining Girls 2)
- Zoe Kazan (Ripley)
- Claire Foy (All the Light We Cannot See)
- Kate Winslet (The Palace)
Prediction: Michelle Williams
I think this is finally her moment. Williams has been nominated across film and television so many times without getting the recognition she deserves. In Adolescence, she delivers the kind of layered, emotional performance that defines an entire show. Add in the cultural weight of the series, and I think she walks away with it.
Outstanding Variety Talk Series
- Last Week Tonight With John Oliver
- The Late Show With Stephen Colbert
- The Daily Show
- Late Night With Seth Meyers
- Real Time With Bill Maher
Prediction: Last Week Tonight With John Oliver
It’s hard to see this streak ending. The show continues to blend comedy with deep research in a way no other talk show quite matches. Colbert remains sharp, and Meyers is often underappreciated, but Oliver’s format dominates the category.
Outstanding Variety Sketch Series
- Saturday Night Live
- Inside Amy Schumer
- Black Lady Sketch Show
- I Think You Should Leave With Tim Robinson
Prediction: Saturday Night Live
This category hasn’t had much turnover, and SNL has inertia on its side. Personally, I’d love to see I Think You Should Leave rewarded for its originality, but Emmy voters tend to stick with tradition here.
Outstanding Competition Program
- RuPaul’s Drag Race
- The Amazing Race
- Top Chef
- Survivor
- The Voice
Prediction: RuPaul’s Drag Race
This show has become a cultural institution, and it continues to innovate within its format while building new audiences every season. The competition is strong, but Drag Race has the cultural impact and momentum to keep winning.
Why These Picks Matter
My predictions aren’t just about who I think will take the stage—they’re about what I think these wins would represent.
- Severance winning would show that ambitious, surreal storytelling still has room to thrive in mainstream awards.
- The Studio sweeping comedy would prove voters still value sharp, self-aware writing in a genre that can so easily default to comfort.
- Adolescence dominating limited series and acting categories would mark how a single show can seize the cultural imagination and hold it.
- Wyle, Bates, Rogen, Smart, Farrell, and Williams all represent different narratives of recognition—career validation, historic breakthroughs, reinvention, consistency, and long-overdue acknowledgment.
The Emmys are always part popularity contest, part reflection of industry anxieties, part genuine celebration. But when the dust settles, these wins would stand for more than trophies—they’d show us where television thinks it’s going, and maybe where it should.
Summary of Predictions
- Severance for Drama
- The Studio for Comedy
- Adolescence for Limited
- Noah Wyle and Kathy Bates for Drama Acting
- Seth Rogen and Jean Smart for Comedy Acting
- Colin Farrell and Michelle Williams for Limited Acting
- Last Week Tonight for Variety Talk
- Saturday Night Live for Variety Sketch
- RuPaul’s Drag Race for Competition
These are my predictions, but they’re also the wins I think make sense for the year we’ve just lived through in television. Prestige, comedy, cultural resonance, and overdue recognition—all the reasons we watch, argue, and care about the Emmys in the first place.